10 replies to this topic

[ChineseHistorian]

Our history is vast, however, the future is still unknown...

With my prediction, I have a feeling that it's rise to becoming a superpower may not be as smooth as many assume. I actually think it is on the brink of self-destructing and that there is a real chance of a Soviet Union-esque collapse with the vultures in foreign governments circling.

[DreamWeaver23]

I like what Napoleon Bonaparte once said

"Let China sleep...for when she awakes she shall astonish the world".

(P.S. I am most curious and excited about China's current space program !!)

Edited by DreamWeaver23, 13 August 2012 - 04:38 PM.

[stardave]

Our history is vast, however, the future is still unknown...

With my prediction, I have a feeling that it's rise to becoming a superpower may not be as smooth as many assume. I actually think it is on the brink of self-destructing and that there is a real chance of a Soviet Union-esque collapse with the vultures in foreign governments circling.

So you have no evidence to back it up whatsoever, however you have this "feeling" so it means anything? Hate to break it to you, that is just your opinion, you know what they say about opinions? They are like a**h***s, everyone have them and they all smell.

[Rambo Wong]

I predict that China will soon surpass the USA. Chinas economy has surpassed Japans and the Bush and Obama have destroyed the powerful economy that Reagan and Clinton built. China is growing and the USA IS DECLINING

[mohistManiac]

I predict that China has gone the path of "letting her cities grow too big" and a time of "pruning" will begin as according to traditional Chinese principles of stable and legitimate rule surface to begin a period of renewal for the those in the core dominancy of administration.

[baybal]

• Big cities will be overrun by internal immigrants from rural areas
  
• Demographic crisis will worsen. PRC will become a nation of middle age people
  
• Currency peg regime will escalate. Cost of living will be sharply increasing from year to year
  
• Elderly will be left neglected en-masse. There will be no real way to retire
  
• PRC investment bubble will collapse, international capital will flee PRC in panic. The credit crunch will follow
  
• Chronic white collar unemployment will push university graduates out into to villages and unskilled work
  
• Soviet style mismanagement will cripple large companies as a result of party appointments
  
• Low rank CCP members will be split between forces of the party, and newly formed "communist oligarchy" class

I see that white collar unemployment can amplify class divide within urban cores of industrial cities, which is already a substantial issue. If the resulting social crisis will coincide with the economic crisis, it can well be possible to have a situation similar to that occurred in USSR in its last years. The overlapping of two crisises was, probably, the main reasons why USSR collapsed so suddenly. USSR's CPSU was capable of handling any of these two alone, but not both at the same time

[TiYiJian]

Regain superpower status which was lost since the second half of 19th century. In the years coming, we'll see a long period of Bipolar competition, perhaps ending with China surpassing the US both in hard and soft power.

[STUDIO]

It definitely isn't smooth, and has not been. Self destruction would be the wrong word. There are lots of countries actively undermining Chinese interests. For starters, I think the U.S. and British have been backing terrorists in Tibet since the 1950's. There is solid evidence that these terrorists have been trained in the U.S. state of Colorado. More recently, they've backed terrorists in XinJiang. Last year they caught a bunch of XinJiangers trying to blow up a plane. Rebiya Kadir was thought to be the mastermind. Kadir lives in the Washington DC area. China was booted out of Libya, and Sudan. That was no mistake. The liberal media is talking about how the west is trying to plant a western puppet in Malaysia because the Malaysian government is seen as being too friendly to China. There are numerous terrorist groups operating throughout China with heavy financial backing from the west. Hong Kong and Taiwan both can prevent the rise of China. There are numerous separtist movements there. CIA have major bases in Taiwan. I don't know how credible this is, but English media has reported that Taiwan is planning a terrorist attack on the 3 gorges dam. You have south Korea, and Japan, and the 60,000 U.S. troops stationed there. The U.S. military just recently installed a missile defence shield that would help the U.S. military launch a nuclear first strike against China. These regimes have all challenged China in recent years- Philipines, Vietnam, and India. On top of that, China has become extremely free in the past 40 years, allowing all kinds of western ideas into China (academia, media, entertainment, etc). What you end up having is a lot of Chinese who are more sympathetic towards the west than towards China. These guys can also be used to destabilise China. If the trend in the mainland is the same as Hong Kong and Taiwan, what you will end up having are youths who are more loyal to the west than to China. In this case, not only will the youth not defend China, they will join the adversary. A lot of Chinese also have children studying abroad, and invest billions and trillions in the U.S., and therefore, they can be blackmaled.

 

That's one side. The other side is, why would China collapse? Why would people revolt? If they have a job, enough to eat, and a place to live. Most Chinese are apolitical, so you don't have very much dissenters. Maybe Chinese people are more patriotic than we think, despite the westernisation that has been going on for the past 40 years. Maybe the west is afraid to start a war with China because it has invested so much into China. Or it could be that the west would not want to destroy its best customer. In many cases western products are selling more to China than in any other country. Not only does the west rely on China as a customer, but also as a manufacturer. If China collapsed. Who would make everything? As much as the Taiwanese and Hongers hate the mainland, they also depend on the mainland economically. If the mainland collapses, this would be a huge loss for their oligarchs, and there is no guarantee they will regain any concessions they may lose. As you can see from Japan's economy, the U.S. is not economically strong enough to support all of its puppet regimes. Maybe the west is just a paper tiger as Chairman Mao said. Maybe China is a lot more militarily stronger than we think and that is another reason why the west would not start a war with China. A lot of people raise the question, China had gone through some of the toughest times in the past 60 years and did not collapse, despite all the terrorism, sanctions, and attacks, why would it now? Something else that might happen is the U.S. or the west will collapse. At that point, it would just be smooth sailing for China, and it could develop without interuptions. Its relations with its neighbours will most likely improve. All the money and effort they put into counter-terrorism can be put into education, and healthcare.

[baybal]

why would China collapse?

Because it will be forced to collapse

 Why would people revolt?

Because they want to overthrow the CCP

If they have a job

I think, you make this a question. The non-affluent, educated minority does not have jobs in PRC.

enough to eat

According to CCP's own data, 120 millions of mainlanders are suffering malnutrition

 and a place to live.

Most CCP citizens don't own any property, neither they have any unalienable right of rent

Most Chinese are apolitical, so you don't have very much dissenters.

So why communists killed 2 thousands of these apolitical people to suppress "a small, spontaneous demonstration" in 1990?

Maybe Chinese people are more patriotic than we think

Yes, they are > http://i10.photobuck...e/935ff4bf.jpg http://www.chinasmac...-guangzhou.html

despite the westernisation that has been going on for the past 40 years.

A typical Shanghai youngster nowadays is more westernised than most "westerners" > http://swedeinseoul....on-120720-b.jpg

Maybe the west is afraid to start a war with China because it has invested so much into China.

The West as a whole did not. Only strange, rich and stupid individuals dared to open factories there.

Or it could be that the west would not want to destroy its best customer.

"The West" certainly doesn't do well and selling anything to PRC. Except for milk powder, salt and luxury purses.

In many cases western products are selling more to China than in any other country.

Oil, lumber and contaminated junk do sell well. But I doubt that there is any significant consumer products element.

Not only does the west rely on China as a customer, but also as a manufacturer.

"The West" is desperate to move production back, really desperate. If bombing chicoms would've ever brought GM back on track, the US would've certainly done that.

If China collapsed. Who would make everything?

There are a lot of other poor countries with low labour costs, and much more rational political establishment.

As much as the Taiwanese and Hongers hate the mainland, they also depend on the mainland economically.

The true situation is a reverse of this statement.

If the mainland collapses, this would be a huge loss for their oligarchs

The general population would certainly like that. Not to say that will improve right-wing electability again.

and there is no guarantee they will regain any concessions they may lose.

As a Chinese, you should be glad to get rid of pesky foreigners' concessions on your territory

As you can see from Japan's economy, the U.S. is not economically strong enough to support all of its puppet regimes.

You should be glad to see Japanese devils struggling.

Maybe the west is just a paper tiger as Chairman Mao said.

And that is great, as it will serve Chinese territorial expansion into it.

Maybe China is a lot more militarily stronger than we think and that is another reason why the west would not start a war with China.

The claimed chicom's best strategist and helmsman Deng lost 400 tanks, and 26,000 troops dead, 37,000 injured to nothing more than Vietnamese irregulars and border guard militia in 1979 conflict.

A lot of people raise the question, China had gone through some of the toughest times in the past 60 years and did not collapse, despite all the terrorism, sanctions, and attacks, why would it now?

Because people will riot and bring down the criminal regime.

Something else that might happen is the U.S. or the west will collapse

Then, it will be even better. The collapse of the Western block is what we need as much as the collapse of PRC and it's criminal regime-CCP

At that point, it would just be smooth sailing for China, and it could develop without interuptions.

Certainly, it will

Edited by baybal, 29 March 2013 - 07:02 AM.

[rocket7777]

Our history is vast, however, the future is still unknown...

With my prediction, I have a feeling that it's rise to becoming a superpower may not be as smooth as many assume. I actually think it is on the brink of self-destructing and that there is a real chance of a Soviet Union-esque collapse with the vultures in foreign governments circling.

In 15 years, there will be computer that are smart as humans and few years after that, way smarter.

Oppressive fake communist party will not last 20-30 years.

[mohistManiac]

In 15 years, there will be computer that are smart as humans and few years after that, way smarter.

Oppressive fake communist party will not last 20-30 years.

My two cents about computers.  Computers are ultimately efficient but ultimately dumb not smarter.  But humans need machines and machines need humans.