Would the fate of china be change....

What happened was that Russians gave roughly the same amount of guns to Chiang Kai-shek and Feng Yuxiang.

Russians, and CCP included, for most of 1926, were time and again trying to stop Chiang Kai-shek from launching the northern expedition.

Why?

Russians and CCP had doubt about Chiang's loyalty, especially so after the Zhongshan Warship Incident.

So Russians wanted to make sure communists took full control of the army before Chiang was to attack north.

Midway, Russians and CCP chose a different path, using Tang Shengzhi as a proxy.

Russians and CCP were at fault for having provoked the KMT-CCP split for the drastic communization measures taken during the northern expedition for steering control of the army.

Should Chiang's northern expedition stall at the Yangtze, you still have Feng Yuxiang and Russians controlling Northwest CHina.

Should Chiang and Feng never had met midway, in Xuzhou, there would remain the possibility that Feng Yuxiang would still be with Russians and CCP.

Then you have the Three Kingdom scenario: Chiang and non-communists in southern China; Feng, Russians, and CCP in northwestern CHina; and Zhang Zuolin and Japanese in northern China and Manchuria.

Should Zhang continue to control northern China and Manchuria, Japanese might not have bombed him to death.

You have a split China that could last 20 years till World War Two erupted, and three Chinese factions could be fighting against each other on behalf of different overlords, Russians and Japanese among others.

But is there any diff if the warlords remain in control

Gun and money matters.

The rest of warlords did not have strong sponsors. They were doomed. Wu Peifu and Cao Kun, for example, only bought 20,000 machine guns from America in 1917, purportedly as a reward for declaring war on Germany. No more American or British military aid after. Duan Qirui got a Nishihara loan, with some spent on military equipment.

None of those aid could compare with Russian aid to Feng Yuxiang and Chiang Kai-shek.

Warlord Sun Chuanfang, for another example, were also given Russian guns and bullets.

When imperialists, in 1919, decided to impose a 10-year arms embargo on China, only Russians broke the rule of the game by supplying China with weapons - not Russian made, but standard WWI-era weapons from Czech ordinances.

The only warlord that could counter Russians was Zhang Zuolin who built up the Mukden Arsenals with the aid of Japan.

As far as the Northern Expedition, big players were Chiang Kai-shek, Feng Yuxiang and Zhang Zuolin. Wu Peifu and Sun Chuangfang were sandwiched in between and were doomed in any gaming scenario.

The Russian factor mattered the most. The rest was effect, not cause. Japan's actions were defensive in nature, against Russian attempt at communizing China. The actions of radical Japanese officers to bomb Zhang Zuolin was a mis-calculation to usurp Manchuria by taking advantage of Zhang Zuolin's debacle in the civil war. It was Russians who first sow instigations against Zhang Zuolin, e.g., Guo Songlin's rebellion against Zhang Zuolin, for tilting the balance of power in Mancuria that had been the status quo since 1904-5 Russo-Japanese War. Japan, under Anglo-American pressure, already agreed to arms reduction at the 1922-3 Washington Conference. American already pressured Japan into withdrawing from Siberia. Russians were the evil root cause of all conflicts that led to WWII.

Gun and money matters.

The rest of warlords did not have strong sponsors. They were doomed. Wu Peifu and Cao Kun, for example, only bought 20,000 machine guns from America in 1917, purportedly as a reward for declaring war on Germany. No more American or British military aid after. Duan Qirui got a Nishihara loan, with some spent on military equipment.

None of those aid could compare with Russian aid to Feng Yuxiang and Chiang Kai-shek.

Warlord Sun Chuanfang, for another example, were also given Russian guns and bullets.

When imperialists, in 1919, decided to impose a 10-year arms embargo on China, only Russians broke the rule of the game by supplying China with weapons - not Russian made, but standard WWI-era weapons from Czech ordinances.

The only warlord that could counter Russians was Zhang Zuolin who built up the Mukden Arsenals with the aid of Japan.

As far as the Northern Expedition, big players were Chiang Kai-shek, Feng Yuxiang and Zhang Zuolin. Wu Peifu and Sun Chuangfang were sandwiched in between and were doomed in any gaming scenario.

The Russian factor mattered the most. The rest was effect, not cause. Japan's actions were defensive in nature, against Russian attempt at communizing China. The actions of radical Japanese officers to bomb Zhang Zuolin was a mis-calculation to usurp Manchuria by taking advantage of Zhang Zuolin's debacle in the civil war. It was Russians who first sow instigations against Zhang Zuolin, e.g., Guo Songlin's rebellion against Zhang Zuolin, for tilting the balance of power in Mancuria that had been the stat