QUOTE(CKkwan @ Oct 18 2007, 05:50 PM)

Alexander have the army size? I remember his troop is quite small.
The Qin was so well trained that they at any time can gather a troop with more than 100k in a short period of time.
And it depends a lot on when Alexander reaches China, he might face the old / young Qin Emperro.
Qin wasn't struggle against rebel forces, in fact they are all states to the Zhou and Qin was the smallest to begin with. Qin struggle because everyone was so well preparedand they were all in wars for many years. When Qin became strong enough they other 6 nations tried to team up to against Qin as well,
I just wonder how much difference Alexandra can make if he become the 7th. Unless he can move his entire army from Europe and Centra Asia to China, and with capability for food, weapons and other logistic support, then he can sutain a long period of major warfare against Qin.
Before I start, I want to say that I am not too sure about the passage from Himalayas to Qin’s western borders and I only have a general modern map at this time, so I may be wrong on the geographical points. I am just doing this for fun.
I am not sure where were the best places for Alexander to cross, so I assume he crossed into Tibet and then Szechuan area. He used Indian guides and, then, Tibetan guides. When he arrived in Szechuan, he would use guides of Ba and Shu people as well as Chinese merchants who did business with Ba and Shu. I do know that it was very hard to get in and out of Szechuan, but I figure if Qin could conquer Ba and Shu in Szechuan area, there should be ways to move armies between Szechuan and Qin.
Alexander lived around 356 B.C. to 323 B.C. If he didn’t die till his old age, he would coincide the time frame of Qin’s King Qin Huiwen秦惠文王(ruled from 338 BC until 311 BC ). At this time, Shang Yang reform in Qin had completed, and Shang Yang was killed around 338B.C.
Alexander would be 18 at 338 B.C., and Qin Huiwen was probably around late 20 to early 30 years old considering he died around 311 B.C. Let’s said Alexander did not turn back in India around 326 B.C., and he took 5 years to pass through/conquer North India and arrived at Chinese western border around 321 B.C. Qin should be in a fairly stable state politically. Shang Yang had died 17 years ago, and whatever political fall out should be settled long ago. Any nobilities who want to turn back the reform bills would have been dealt with long ago, and the whole kingdom of Qin was under reform law for the last 35 years. 35 years was enough time for at least two generations of soldiers to grow up under the Qin’s military doctrines and farmers and craftsmen to function smoothly under Qin’s laws. The public works from the reform would have increased the food supply and the ease of transportation. It also increased the Qin population. In addition, the Qin’s borders and cities were well sealed from spies of other countries, especially the ones who are more foreign than the other 6 kingdoms. All in all, Qin had become an efficient war machine. (Note: In real history, Qin defeated the armies from 5 eastern kingdoms 3 years later.)
At 321 B.C., Alexander would be 35 years old, and the Qin Huiwen was probably around 45 or 47 years old. Alexander would be in his prime, and Qin Huiwen was probably more mature but getting into old age.
I assume Alexander had brought a combined army of Greek, Persian, and Indian, but he did not bring elephants because they couldn’t get over the Himalayas. The horses might also have a problem passing through the Himalayas. He might end up with very few horses. He probably made alliances with the local Tibetans and the tribes/states of Ba and Shu after he passed through Himalayas and had them in his army also. I believe the local tribes of Tibet, Ba, and Shu would feel threatened by his army and more willing to negotiate than to fight. Ba and Shu would have local knowledge about Qin, and they were Qin’s enemies anyway. (Note: In real history, Qin conquered Ba and Shu in the next 100 years.)
Alexander would set up a base in Szechuan area where Ba and Shu were because it had plenty of food and water. He needed to rest his army and to gather information about this new area. I think he would probably marry some Ba and/or Shu princesses and send his spies inland with Ba or Shu merchants or Han (no Han yet, but…) merchants who trade with Ba or Shu. He would probably make alliances with the other kingdoms to attack Qin. Since the other kingdoms already planning to attack Qin in 3 years, he was just in time.
I believe if Alexander hided his presence in Ba and Su area, he might be able to make a sneak attack on Qin when the 5 kingdoms were attacking Qin. Thus, Alexander could cause major damage and even conquer Qin. It may be hard, but Qin’s attention would be on the east (the other 6 kingdoms) and north side (XunNu), not on the southwest. Qin might ignore the danger from Ba and Shu because they were smaller and weaker kingdoms and more like barbaric tribes. In addition, if Alexander had information of how Qin's army fight in battles and Qin's army did not know how Alexander's army's fighting style, it would be a great disadvantage for Qin. Alexander could design shields and armors to protect his soldiers fom Qin's weapon, nu, as well as design strategies to avoid battle face to face with Qin's army. Alexander could very well succeed in defeating Qin's army.
Alexander’s Persian and Indian troops would probably fare well in Szechuan area, but his Greek troop might have a problem. I assume the ones left were the hardier ones who could get through Indian and Himalayas. Therefore, they might not totally die out. The supplies for men are probably OK because Szechuan is a fairly fertile country. The horses might have a problem.
Alexander could re-supply his horses through alliances with XunNu or some local great horse merchants, like Mr. Wu’s family. He could also involved XunNu in his attack of Qin.
If he conquered Qin around 318 B.C., he would be able to settle in for a while to assimilate his new kingdom while preparing for further campaign on the other 6 kingdoms. I don’t think the other 6 kingdoms or the Qin people would rise up and unite to fight this foreign army. First, there was no real solid concept of China at the time. Second, the ethnic of Chinese were also not settled. There were many different races in the 7 kingdoms. Third, the 6 kingdoms were busy fighting each other, and they generally look down on any barbarian kingdoms. If Alexander pretended he was satisfied with the land of Qin, it was possible that the other kingdoms wouldn’t pay too much attention to him. Forth, the Qin people was under a very controlled society for the last 35 years, and, as long as Alexander kept the bureaucrat system going like he did in Persia, he would have no trouble with people of Qin. I believe it might take him only 5 years to be ready to start his campaign to conquer the rest of China. That would be 313 B.C. when he was 43 years old. He would be not too old to get on with his campaign for another 17 years.
Now, it would be the tricky part. I don’t think he could conquer the rest of China before his death, but his children might be able to do so. If he died in his 60’s, his son would be in his late 20’s. Also, he might have other sons from his Persian, Indian, and Chinese concubines. He could do the same thing as Genghis Khan and divide his empires among his sons and/or generals. The great empire may get divided, but all empires fell. The son and grandson who stayed in China would probably have Chinese blood in them. With their mother’s and their mother’s family’s help, they should be able to conquer China eventually with the help of original Qin’s technology and resources. By that time, the descendents of Alexander the Great would look and behave more like Chinese than Greek. As Alexander conquered China, China will conquer his sons. The End.
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The other possibility is that Alexander tried the sneak attack and encountered the Qin's weapon of nu. Alexander and XunNu's combined army suffered great loss, and Alexander got killed by nu because he liked to fight in the front. His army disintegrated. Some would try to go back to their homeland and died on their way. Some would go with XunNu and join them. And some would settle in Szechuan or Tibet with the tribesmen. The End.